Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Economic Summary for the week ended 17th Aug 2015

Fears over Greece, China and the US Federal Reserve rate rise has resulted in there being more bears in the market than you’ll find at that oft-sung picnic in the woods.  This negative sentiment is highlighted in this week’s chart, which shows that the weekly bullish sentiment survey, conducted by American Association of Individual Investors, has reached multi-year lows.  Should investors be worried?  If history is any guide the collapse in sentiment is a strong contrarian indicator for US equities.  Historically, when bullish sentiment has dropped below 30% it has on led to 21.3% average return from the S&P 500 in the subsequent 12 months.  Past performance is not always a good guide of future performance however, in the famous words of Warren Buffett: “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy”.

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